Who's the Shoote ...?
BY: Michael Vernon
Craps is a game of numbers and odds. You have to understand the numbers if you are going to experience any long-term success playing the game. The rules of the game are such that no matter how you play, the odds always favor the casino. The payoffs for bets are expressed proportionally based on the probability of the losing combinations to the winning combinations. You are expected to lose. So, when you do win, you had better recognize your accomplishment with pride and satisfaction.
One of the elements that makes playing dice so much fun is that the dice do not always perform according to probability. It is during these rare windows of opportunity that the craps player is able to pull down some profit. Occasionally, subtle signs can tip off the perceptive player when the game is favorable or about to become favorable. One, for example, is what I call, “can’t and won’t”. The shooter can’t make the point and for some mysterious reason, the dice won’t seven out. The shooter rolls box number after box number as place bets and come bets repeat. It can be a “hay-day” for the come and place better. Other indications are evident when the shooter rolls past the “superstitions” that are believed to be the precursors to the “7-out”. The shooter dodges the superstition, holds on to the dice and rolls the winning point instead.
This fact or occurrence is grossly overlooked by those individuals playing a one-dimensional game that adheres to a limited belief that only dice setters are the only ones worthy of shooting dice. Dice setters overcome with the dogma of their own self-importance as a shooter miss out on the easy money. One cannot afford the luxury of being a snob when it comes to craps. Yes, in anyone’s hand, the dice can act out of probability and some monstrous hands occur at random from random rollers.
It is possible to recognize certain signs as indicators that a player is about to have a winning hand. What are some of these indicators to be looking for? Let’s set the scene. First, you have to have an awareness of how the game is going. Watching previous shooters and noting how they have been rolling. Games develop a “personality”. A game’s personality is a composition of all the players, gaming personnel, prevailing conditions and developing rolls.
In a typical game the average number of rolls per shooter will be between 5 to 8 rolls. The dice are following the mathematics of probability for a seven to show once in about every six tosses. The seven is adhering to probability and players are paying to play. This constitutes a short game for the players commonly referred as chop dice. The action is too choppy for any method of play to perform. The house odds are at work and the casino gathers money from all the players. The signs indicate exactly what is to be expected. No one can hold on to the dice as the game moves quickly along from shooter to next. It’s a losing game. The “personality” of this type of game reflects a typical craps game, short hands, chop dice.
Now, just about the time you figure to cut your loses, a random roller comes along and breaks away from the short hands. The shooter rolls twelve, fifteen or more times and perhaps makes a few passes. The game is in what I call “no man’s land”. No other player has approached a hand close to this achievement. Suddenly, the cold game heats up with a few winning points and anything can happen now. Will this shooter break-a-way with a thirty-minute hand? It could happen. The dice are dumb and do not know what they should do in any player’s hand. What are the signs to be looking for besides the fact that the shooter is having the longest hand of any player?
Sometimes, during a hand like this, the seven continues to adhere to probability. However, when it does make its appearance, it is during the come out roll when it is a good thing for a pass line better. This is one indicator to be aware of during a long hand, the absences of the seven or that when it does roll it shows up when it is safe, for the players, during the come out roll. This is the dice acting out of probability. The point repeats before the seven and the seven shows up when it is safe. Thus, the game is extended.
The next time you witness a game like this, observe to see if the seven makes its appearance politely on the come out roll. It is a good sign when probability produces the seven at the right time.
The hitch to cashing in is to recognize when the ice is melting. The dice do fluctuate unexpectedly and unusual things can occur. Probability though mathematically correct, does not always adhered to the rule. It is at those times when the dice seem to ignore probability that the long hand comes along. The player able to recognize the opportunity can make up their losses quick, along with a handsome profit. It is a matter of perceiving energy and paying close attention to the subtle signs signaling when the opportunity comes knocking. That is why finessing the game by playing scared, avoiding random rollers, will cause you to miss out on the money. You catch more fish when your line is in the water.
In the Dice Busters™ program, I teach students how to seize opportunity by perceiving energy. I also teach a proven method of play that takes care of any opportunity even if you don’t see it coming. In fact, it is like auto-pilot. If you are capable of discipline and follow my dice strategy, you will never miss an opportunity. The key is to be at the table, in the game, when the hot hand comes along. It is all about positioning yourself to be in the right place at the right time. You have to play a conservative game that extends your bankroll and gives your money the best shot for winning and that is what “Playing 4 Keeps” delivers.
The dice are dumb. The dice do not look up from that table and decide what they are going to do based on the experience of the next shooter. The dice will roll out of probability in anyone’s hand be it a dice setter or a random roller. It is an expression of energy and learning to read the energy is a skill that you can develop. The more skill that you add to your game, the more you increase your advantage playing the game.
The game can change in the blink of an eye. I have seen more productive dice tables with random shooters than a table full of dice setters. The random shooter is not to be scorned or shunned. All players in the game are worthy as the next shooter for a potential monster hand. Honor the random shooter. You make a big mistake, if as a dice setter, you alienate yourself and your game from the possibility of any shooter rolling a hand.
The challenge is having a method of play that allows a player to hang with any combination of players long enough to find the shooter on the table. It may be a dice setter or it may be a random roller. One thing for sure, if your game depends on the ability of dice setting, you have nothing else to fall back on when that method is not performing. You are as likely to lose just as much money, clinging to the frail hope that the next dice setter is going to be the one. Meanwhile, as you stand waiting for the dice to return to you, the random rollers are having a good roll or two and you miss-out on easy money for being a snob.
I was playing at the Gold Spike in Tunica, Mississippi. The fellow next to me was a dice setter. I had just happen to saddle up next to him when I made the discovery during his turn with the dice. He had a nice toss and rolled a small hand. I rolled next but he did not play during my turn. I had a three-point hand. He made a comment about wishing he’d got in the game with me.
The dice setter would not play unless he was shooting or another dice setter was shooting. So, we stood there and talked about dice and dice setting waiting for the dice to return. It was a Friday night, the tables were full and it took the dice an hour to go around the table before returning to us. Normally, I would have continued playing, but talking and playing do not mix. I have to be 100% engaged in a game in order to notice all that is going on with a game. While we talked, two random rollers had three-point hands and a third player had a four-point hand. I would have more than doubled my bankroll had I stayed the course and continued to play.
After the four point hand, the next three shooters rolled short point and out hands. I sensed that the game was breaking down. It felt like the opportunity had come and gone and I missed it while I was talking and waiting. My friend picked up the dice and rolled a “point and sevened out”. I followed him with an equally poor showing. The dice setter, betting on my setting, loaded up on my hand and lost the rest of his profit won earlier. I played extremely tight sensing the energy was gone and colored up about 15 units profit. My new friend left even for the session. It would be another hour for the dice to return. Standing there for an hour, perhaps we had gone cold waiting for out next turn. In reality, the opportunity appeared and ignored, and the game was settling back into the math of probability.
During the hour that I was in that game I witnessed three three-point hands and one four point hand. The dice setter’s first hand was a two-point hand. That is what I call walking right into it. Nothing to brag on as far a monster roll, but several random rollers had profitable hands as the dice performed out of probability.
Now, hind sight is always 20/20 and what if’s are just that, speculation. I know if I had played my game, I would have more than doubled my bankroll.
This is the main point of this article to be aware of if you are a dice setter and team up with other setters. The idea that as setters, you are special or better than the rest is a trap. Don’t get caught in the ego trap of thinking your are going to win every time by the hand of a dice setter. No one is that good. In any one’s hand, the dice can perform out of probability. Honoring all players is honoring that the dice will and do act out of probability. In anyone’s hand a monster roll can occur. You have to position yourself in a worthy game. You have to play to extend you bankroll. You have to play alert to the subtle signs of the energy present. You have to be in the game when the opportunity comes along.
To play craps trying to finesse the game picking who will roll a hand and who will not is utter nonsense. Yes, as a dice setter you must have the confidence in your skill and believe in your ability. It is however, only one small part of the game. To depend solely on the idea that only dice setters are worthy of betting action, you restrict the possibilities of opportunity. That is why what I teach in Dice Busters is such a great way to play the game. It provides you with a method of playing each player. It minimizes loss through minimal exposure of your bankroll. It automatically sizes opportunity when the hand comes along. When the dice break away from probability, you must have a dependable method of play that will extend your playing time so that you are in the game when the dice roll your way.
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