Not Your Old Man's House Advantage
Whether you've played craps for a year, or five years or twenty, one of the first lessons you were taught is that there are "good" bets and "bad" bets on the crap table. Pass Line, Don't Pass, Come Bets and Place Bets on the six and eight were examples of "good" bets, and Proposition Bets and Place Bets on the five and nine were "bad" bets. For the average player, this is reasonable advice. But what about those of us who are dice influencers?
The common thinking is that craps is unbeatable because the house has an advantage on every bet on the table. Again, for the average player, I believe it is quite difficult to overcome the house advantage with any regularity. However, many of us have demonstrated our ability to reduce the appearance of the seven, thereby increasing the frequency which other numbers are rolled. If a skilled shooter can reduce the appearance of the seven to five of thirty six rolls, instead of six, and still maintain the appearance of the eight to five of thirty six rolls, that results in a one to one relationship between the seven and eight. But a place bet on the eight pays 7:6. Does the house have an advantage? No. The dice influencer has the advantage when he or she has the dice. Dice influencers not only influence the dice, they consistently influence the house advantage when they're shooting. The shooter above can have a demonstrated advantage on the six and eight, but the interesting thing, is that at the same time, they'll be INCREASING the house advantage of other wagers on the layout. So, success at the table not only relies on our skill at tossing the dice, but also in knowing how each set we use impacts our expected dice outcomes, and whether we use a betting strategy that properly corresponds with those expected outcomes.
Let's take this a step farther. In the example above, I demonstrated how the shooter may gain an advantage on a place bet on the eight. A "good" bet, right? What about those so-called "crazy crapper "bets? If dice influencing theory is valid for "good" bets, it is also applicable for so-called "bad" bets. Again, we as dice influencers determine whether the house has an advantage on any given wager based on our skill level, the pre-set we choose, and our wagering ability. I'll give you a for instance. If a shooter were to use the straight sixes as their come out pre-set and they have a demonstrated ability to keep both dice on axis at least 45 percent of the time, then they will achieve a discernable advantage on horn bets. Yes, that's right, an advantage on those "crazy crapper" bets you've always been told were "bad." (you can see a graphical illustration of this here)
What does this mean? First of all, it doesn't mean that you run out to the tables and start throwing your money all over the layout. The profitability of ANY wager on the table is not solely based on whether a dice influencer can skillfully throw the dice. There are questions of bankroll, variance, skew, consistency and a host of other issues that every shooter needs to address as they ply their skills on the tables. However, the purpose of this article is to demonstrate that when we hold the dice, the house advantage (or player advantage!) is no longer written in stone, but is much more fluid. Our skill level and our wagering choices are the primary factors that determine our long term profitability. As a dice influencer, you are not overcoming the house advantage, but are in fact determining which wagers you have an edge, and which wagers the house has an edge.
EPILOGUE: I'd like to take a moment to give credit where credit is due. The data I used as the foundation of this article was based on simulations developed and executed by ACDOC and Maddog, for the Precision Shooter Dice Forum. The work they've done has shattered much of the previous dice control dogma that has been propagated in recent years.
NOTE:Irishsetter is webmaster of dicesetter.com and has been practicing the art of dice influencing since the late 90's. You can join 'Irish' and many others who are active in the dice influencing community on the Precision Shooter Dice Forum or you can email him at firstname.lastname@example.org
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